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After the COP26 disappointment, the “blame game” will get us nowhere
The implications of last week’s disappointing COP26 meeting in Glasgow are so complex and so numerous that is going to take more than one blog post to provide adequate coverage. In this first post, I...
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China could either see net imports of 63m tonnes in 2021-2031 or net exports...
By John Richardson CONFUSED BY the above chart? Once again I certainly hope so, provided confusion is not followed by blind paralysing panic. The chart, showing three scenarios for China’s net...
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Global polyethylene supply could lengthen, becoming a buyers’ market, sooner...
By John Richardson RARELY, IF EVER, have events felt so bafflingly complex in the global polyethylene (PE) business. Take as an example the chart below listing the factors that have reshaped demand...
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Dip in Chinese PP exports only temporary with Q1 2022 resurgence looking likely
By John Richardson TRADE DATA when combined with price assessments, supply and demand estimates and market intelligence is the modern-day equivalent of alchemy with a rather important difference: we...
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As China coal shortages end, polyolefins margins reach historic lows on...
By John Richardson AGAIN, DON’T say I didn’t tell you. In my 11 October blog post, having talked to people who know what they are talking about, I flagged up the possibility that China’s energy...
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Global polyethylene could move from inflation to deflation by as early as Q1...
By John Richardson THE BALTIC DRY INDEX, one of the excellent barometers of overall economic activity, was late last week at its lowest level since June on a slowing Chinese economy, easing congestion...
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Global polypropylene could also move from inflation to deflation in Q1 next year
By John Richardson WE ALL NEED TO ASK ourselves whether the global patterns in polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) pricing and margins that we have seen over the last year represent a long-term...
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China 2021 polyethylene demand could be 1.9m tonnes lower than last year
By John Richardson WE NOW HAVE enough data to make some firm conclusions about what the Chinese polyethylene (PE) market will have looked like in 2021. We can also make some early estimates about the...
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Why China’s PP demand may only grow by 1% per year in 2022-2032
By John Richardson MOST people now accept that China’s real estate sector, worth some 29% of the country’s GDP, is deflating with significant long-term implications for petrochemicals growth. But...
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China PE demand may fall by 5% this year with net imports 3.2m tonnes lower
A FRISSON of excitement rippled through the global polyolefins markets last week when a rumour spread that China was finally back, that its pricing and demand had at long last started to rebound....
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